模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报研究   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

金龙  林熙  金健  李菁 《气象学报》2003,61(1):78-84

综合应用预报量自身时间序列的拓展,数值预报产品和模块化模糊神经网络方法,进行了一种新的数值预报产品释用预报研究。将这种新方法与常规的数值预报产品完全预报(PP)方法进行了对比试验。结果表明,这种模块化模糊神经网络数值预报产品释用预报方法比PP预报方法的预报精度显著提高。并且,通过对预报模型“过拟合”现象的研究发现,这种模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报模型具有很好的泛化性能。  相似文献   

The Uplift of the Longmenshan Thrust Belt and Subsidence of the West Sichuan Foreland Basin   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Liu Shugen  Luo Zhili  Dai Sulan  Changlu Institute of Technology  Chengdu  Sichuan  ChinaDennis Arne Dalhousie U niversity  Canadaand C.J.L. Wilson Melbourne U niversity  Australia Jiang M inxi 《《地质学报》英文版》1996,70(1):16-26

Based on fission track dating of apatite, and measurement of vitrinite reflectance of rock samples from the Longmenshan (Longmen Mountain)area and the West Sichuan foreland basin and computer modelling it is concluded that (l)the Songpan-Garze fold belt has uplifted at least by 3-4 km with an uplift rate of no less than 0.3-0.4 mm/a since 10 Ma B.P.; (2) the Longmenshan thrust nappe belt has uplifted at least by 5-6 km with an uplift rate of more than 0.5- 0.6 mm /a since 10 Ma B.P.; (3) the Longmenshan detachment belt has uplifted by 1 - 2 km at a rate of 0.016-0.032 mm/a since 60 Ma B.P.; (4) the West Sichuan foreland basin has uplifted by 1.7-3 km at a rate of 0.028-0.05 mm/a since 60 Ma B.P.; (5) the uplift rate of the area on the west side of the Beichuan-Yingxiu-Xiaoguanzi fault for the last 10 Ma is 40 times as much as that on its east side; (6) the uplifting of the the Songpan - Garze fold belt and the subsidence of the West Sichuan foreland basin 60 Ma ago exhibit a mirro-image correlation, i.e  相似文献   

由大地测量数据得到的犹他州沃萨奇断层带的全新世滑动速率：地震周期效应     

R.Malservisi T.H.Dixon P.C.L.Femina K.P.Furling胡凤英  王文旭郭德科 尹志军 《世界地震译丛》2004,(5):42-46

在美国西部盆地山脉省的东部地区，GPS数据确定了一个宽大的现代变形带。使用覆盖在粘弹性下地壳／上地幔之上的弹性上地壳的有限元模型并结合地震周期效应，我们指出这些数据与现今的断层滑动集中在沃萨奇断层带上的模型是一致的。模拟的水平扩展速度是3．0～4．5mm／a，这也与全新世的地质数据相一致。这些模型是非一的，部分原因是大部分沃萨奇断层都处于地震周期的后期阶段，而这一时期跨断层的地表速度梯度均较低。  相似文献   

新报告制定地球科学未来进程计划     

S．Adlen E．E．Brodsky T．Oki A．J．Ridley L．Sanchez C．Simionato K．Yoshizawa U．Shamir王文旭  郭德科胡凤英 廖武林 《世界地震译丛》2004,(6):3-5

上个世纪，地球科学的发展已具有很强的了解和预测地球系统事件的能力。过去的10年，定量地球科学研究蓬勃发展。随着观测系统和计算工具的进步，人们能以前所未有的时空分辨率来模拟和预测地球物理过程，地球科学也将继续加速发展。随着这些进步，需要反思地球科学研究的现状，重新评估地球科学研究发展的方向和明确能实现的现实目标。  相似文献   

柴达木盆地北缘古生代超高压带中花岗质岩浆作用   总被引：38，自引：0，他引：38  

吴才来  杨经绥  许志琴  Joseph L.WOODEN  Trevor IRELAND  李海兵  史仁灯  孟繁聪  陈松永  Harold PERSING  Anders MEIBOM 《地质学报》2004,78(5):658-674

祁连南缘古生代超高压变质带 (榴辉岩年龄为 4 6 6～ 4 95 Ma)上一套中高级变质岩系 (达肯大坂片麻岩 )中存在三类花岗岩组合 : 类 :石英二长闪长岩 -花岗闪长岩 -二长花岗岩 , 类 :二长花岗岩 -二云母花岗岩-含白云母花岗岩 -正长花岗岩 , 类 :花岗闪长岩 -二长花岗岩 -黑云母花岗岩。 类岩石组合中的二长花岗岩锆石SHRIMP年龄为 4 73Ma, 类岩石组合中的正长花岗岩锆石 SHRIMP年龄为 4 4 6 Ma, 类岩石组合中的二长花岗岩锆石 SHRIMP年龄为 397Ma。从三类花岗岩组合的组成矿物来看 , 类和 类的矿物组合主要为斜长石、角闪石、石英、碱性长石、黑云母 , 类的矿物组合为钾长石、石英、白云母、黑云母、斜长石 ;从岩石地球化学特征上看 , 类和 类花岗岩为 型花岗岩 ,岩石的 Si O2 =6 1%～ 6 9% ,Na2 O/ K2 O>1,ANK<1,δEu=0 .7～ 1.0 ; 类花岗岩为 S型花岗岩 ,岩石的 Si O2 =70 %～ 76 % ,Na2 O/ K2 O<1,ANK>1,δEu=0 .1～ 0 .3;从构造环境上看 , 类花岗岩形成于岛弧环境或活动大陆边缘 , 类花岗岩形成于同碰撞 , 类花岗岩形成于碰撞后。结合区域地质特征 ,我们认为 ,早奥陶世 ,南祁连洋板块向北俯冲于祁连陆块之下 ,规模不大的南祁连洋很快闭合 ,但俯冲下去的大洋板块仍拖动柴达木陆块继续俯冲 ,俯冲  相似文献   

土壤的冷生构造及其对阿拉斯加土地利用的意义     

C. L Ping  M.T. Jorgeson  Y.L. Shur 《冰川冻土》2004,26(Z1):1-7

Cryogenic structure (patterns made by ice inclusions) in seasonally frozen and permafrost-af-fected soils result from ice formation during freezing. Analysis of cryogenic structures in soils is essential to our understanding of the cryogenic processes in soils and to formulating land use management interpretations. When soils freeze, the freezing front moves downward and attracts water moving upward resulting in mainly horizontal lenticular ice formation. Platy and lenticular soil structures form between ice lenses in upper active layer. The reticular soil structure usually forms above the permafrost table caused by freeze-back of the permafrost. The upward freeze-back resulted in platy soil structure and the volume changes following the annual freeze-thaw cycle resulted in vertical cracks. The combined result is an ice-net formation with mineral soils embedded in the ice net. The upper permafrost layer that used to be a part of the active layer has an ice content exceeding 50% due to repeated freeze-thaw cycles over time. The mineral soils appear in blocks embedded in an ice matrix. The permafrost layer that never experienced the freeze-thaw cycle often consists of alternate layers of thin ice lens and frozen soils with extreme hard consistence and has relatively lower ice content than the ice-rich layer of the upper permafrost. Ice contents and thaw settling potentials associated with each cryogenic structure should be considered in engineering and land use interpretations.  相似文献   

Pressure State in Deep Crust and Formation Depth of UHP Metamorphic Rocks     

Lü Guxian 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2004,15(2):135-144

INTRODUCTIONSincethediscoveryofeclogiteswithcoesiteanddia mondinclusionsrelatedtothecontinent continentcollision orogenyenvironment,theultrahigh pressuremetamorphism(UHPM )intheDabie Suluhasarousedgreatinterestinmanygeologists (Liouetal .,1994 ;Xuetal.,1992 ) .Experimentalstudieshaveprovedthatsuchmineralsasdia mond ,coesiteandomphaciteoccurredat 2 - 5GPa (andatthecorrespondingtemperatures) (Stevenetal.,1982 ;MirwaldandMasonne ,1980 ) .However,itdoesnotmeanthatthemetamorphicrockscanbe…  相似文献   

用于南非疟疾控制的空间辅助决策支持系统     

Sharp B L  Martin C L  Fraser C  印洁 《测绘文摘》2004,(1)

莫桑比克、斯威士兰和南非政府于1999年建立了Lubombo空间发展计划(LSDI),用于促进国家边境地区农村的经济发展。LSDI的目标是增加就业机会,吸引投资,预计五年达到如下目标:促进政府间多层次合作;提高国家在基础设施、旅游和农业的投资;建立稳定的投资环境。  相似文献   

数字地图制图学中理论和方法的不足     

Meng L  谢永达 《测绘文摘》2004,(1)

数字制图技术似乎已经弥补了传统制图过程中固有的缺陷,例如从三维到二维的几何转换等。同时,数字地图的表达已经扩展到能适应空间数据日益增长的复杂性。标准地图正受到更大量的类似地图表达方式或直观图形信息的冲击。用户可以实现现实与虚拟现实的任意漫游。然而制图理论和方法的发展大大落后于制图技  相似文献   

Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia   总被引：18，自引：5，他引：18  

JU Jianhu  Lü Junmei  CAO Jie  REN Juzhang 《大气科学进展》2005,22(1):39-48

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia, The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.  相似文献